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Predictability of Weather and Climate

作者: Tim Palmer , Renate Hagedorn 出版社: CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
ISBN: 9781107414853分类号: P45 /P924
出版时间: 2014-07-10有396人浏览

Predictability of Weather and Climate

[Book Description]

The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.

[Table of Contents]
List of contributors                       viii
Preface                                            xiii
    Chapter 1 Predictability of weather and        1   (29)
    climate: from theory to practice
          T. N. Palmer
    Chapter 2 Predictability from a dynamical      30  (10)
    meteorological perspective
          Brian Hoskins
    Chapter 3 Predictability -- a problem          40  (19)
    partly solved
          Edward N. Lorenz
    Chapter 4 The Liouville equation and           59  (40)
    atmospheric predictability
          Martin Ehrendorfer
    Chapter 5 Application of generalised           99  (25)
    stability theory to deterministic and
    statistical prediction
          Petros J. Ioannou
          Brian F. Farrell
    Chapter 6 Ensemble-based atmospheric data      124 (33)
    assimilation
          Thomas M. Hamill
    Chapter 7 Ensemble forecasting and data        157 (24)
    assimilation: two problems with the same
    solution?
          Eugenia Kalnay
          Brian Hunt
          Edward Ott
          Istvan Szunyogh
    Chapter 8 Approximating optimal state          181 (36)
    estimation
          Brian F. Farrell
          Petros J. Ioannou
    Chapter 9 Predictability past,                 217 (34)
    predictability present
          Leonard A. Smith
    Chapter 10 Predictability of coupled           251 (24)
    processes
          Axel Timmermann
          Fei-Fei Jin
    Chapter 11 Predictability of tropical          275 (31)
    intraseasonal variability
          Duane E. Waliser
    Chapter 12 Predictability of seasonal          306 (36)
    climate variations: a pedagogical review
          J. Shukla
          J. L. Kinter
    Chapter 13 Predictability of the North         342 (23)
    Atlantic thermohaline circulation
          Mojib Latif
          Holger Pohlmann
          Wonsun Park
    Chapter 14 On the predictability of            365 (26)
    flow-regime properties on interannual to
    interdecadal timescales
          Franco Molteni
          Fred Kucharski
          Susanna Corti
    Chapter 15 Model error in weather and          391 (37)
    climate forecasting
          Myles Allen
          David Frame
          Jamie Kettleborough
          David Stainforth
    Chapter 16 Observations, assimilation and      428 (31)
    the improvement of global weather
    prediction -- some results from operational
    forecasting and ERA-40
          Adrian J. Simmons
    Chapter 17 The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction       459 (30)
    System
          Roberto Buizza
    Chapter 18 Limited-area ensemble               489 (25)
    forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system
          Stefano Tibaldi
          Tiziana Paccagnella
          Chiara Marsigli
          Andrea Montani
          Fabrizio Nerozzi
    Chapter 19 Operational seasonal prediction     514 (18)
          David L. T. Anderson
    Chapter 20 Weather and seasonal climate        532 (29)
    forecasts using the superensemble approach
          T. N. Krishnamurti
          T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar
          Won-Tae Yun
          Arun Chakraborty
          Lydia Stefanova
    Chapter 21 Predictability and targeted         561 (23)
    observations
          Alan Thorpe
          Guorun Nina Petersen
    Chapter 22 The attributes of forecast          584 (12)
    systems: a general framework for the
    evaluation and calibration of weather
    forecasts
          Zoltan Toth
          Olivier Talagrand
          Yuejian Zhu
    Chapter 23 Predictability from a forecast      596 (18)
    provider's perspective
          Ken Mylne
    Chapter 24 Ensemble forecasts: can they        614 (14)
    provide useful early warnings?
          Francois Lalaurette
          Gerald van der Grijn
    Chapter 25 Predictability and economic value   628 (17)
          David S. Richardson
    Chapter 26 A three-tier overlapping            645 (29)
    prediction scheme: tools for strategic and
    tactical decisions in the developing world
          Peter J. Webster
          T. Hopson
          C. Hoyos
          A. Subbiah
          H.-R. Chang
          R. Grossman
    Chapter 27 DEMETER and the application of      674 (19)
    seasonal forecasts
          Renate Hagedorn
          Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
          T. N. Palmer
Index                                              693

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